Job market paper
“Mobile Broadband and Consumer Price Response”
Households increasingly concentrate their spending on a smaller set of familiar products, which may give firms more power over loyal consumers. Theory suggests that Internet access could hasten this trend: consumers can more easily compare prices for their favorite products, and advertisers can use greater data availability to target ads and coupons. In this paper, I study how smartphone access affects consumers at the grocery store. Using state-level random forests, I construct the first public, national dataset on 3G rollout, a prerequisite for smartphone use. I find that smartphone access shifts purchases toward smaller brands and weakly reduces household spending concentration, as consumers buy more distinct brands and products. Counter to general trends, I find that consumers become more likely to purchase products where they differ from the “typical” consumer. I also find no significant change in posted prices or in-store offerings. Demand estimation shows that smartphones shrink price elasticities but do not generally affect brand relevance. These results run counter to the information mechanisms usually proposed for smartphones’ effect on shopping. Instead, I propose in-store distraction as the most likely explanation.
You can access my 3G rollout data here.
Working papers
“Trip-taking and Amenity Exposure” (with Andrew Earle)
Abstract
When people travel, the amenities they are exposed to differ from the amenities at their home. We study how travel changes exposure to one amenity with wide-ranging impacts on well-being: temperature. Using cellphone-based mobility data, we compare the temperatures where people visit to the temperatures where they live. Across the contiguous United States in 2019, travel slightly increases exposure to pleasant temperatures (60-85F) while decreasing exposure to cold and heat. We explore heterogeneity across several dimensions. Travel tends to cool relatively warm cities—e.g., Phoenix, AZ—and warm cool cities—e.g., Minneapolis, MN—which can increase or decrease exposure to pleasant temperatures depending on the season. These exposure changes tend to be larger for high-income tracts. Our results suggest that travel could prove an important margin for climate adaptation.
“Where to Next? Mobile Broadband and Business Dynamics”
Abstract
I study the impact of mobile broadband access and smartphone adoption (together, “smartphone access”) on business dynamics. Using point-of-interest data in conjunction with estimated 3G access, I find that smartphone access favors establishments and firms that were already prominent prior to this technology becoming available. Rollout decreased establishment churn and increased the proliferation of large regional and national firms. I also identify small positive effects on the likelihood that consumer-facing establishments remain open 1-3 years after entry. Regarding location decisions, I find no evidence to support a change in new entrants’ distance to incumbent establishments larger than a few feet.
“Out of Bounds: An Examination of Portland, OR’s Urban Growth Boundary”
Abstract
Urban growth boundaries reduce the supply of developable land; economic intuition suggests that such policies will increase land prices within the boundary and lead to greater density of development. Using a series of expansions in Portland, OR’s urban growth boundary from 2008-2019, I conclude that zoning changes caused by annexation to the boundary led to a 67% increase in land value per acre and a 68% increase in total valuation for annexed parcels. Renovation and new construction likewise increase by 5-7 percentage points. Spillover effects on nearby parcels are negligible, and though newly-annexed areas do see about 18% more street intersections and 13% fewer parcels. The effects are largely concentrated in the period of zoning change, which may reflect (re)development in affected areas—not a lasting increase in local housing density.
Work in progress
“The Micro-Geography of Productivity, Density, and Sorting” (with Oren Ziv)